A very useful tool that I read every morning is RealClearPolitics.com. They seem to answer the questions that I am always asking.
They are following all the polls and now a month before the elections show that control of the House and Senate is a toss-up. They tend to be careful and the show New Jersey and Ohio as toss-ups in the Senate race. They don’t indicate much about the House race except that the Dems need a gain of 15 seats to take the House.
I went through the Senate races and the top 30 contested house races. I have concluded that it would be difficult for the Democrats to lose the House as things stand. I think there may be a 3 or 4 seat majority unless something happens. The Senate is a squeaker. The Dems can win and have a majority, but they can also lose New Jersey, Ohio and Missouri if anything happens in the next month.
What might happen to change voter minds in the next month? Bush can find Osama, or there could be a Democratic scandal, or a terrorist attack. Any of these might re-energize Republican voters. I think, though, that conservative voters might be disgusted and stay home. My prediction that Bush will teach people to fear Republicans is coming true, but there is a sort of Stockholm Syndrome here. People feel attached to the failed regime because it controlled their lives for so long.
Democrats can win, not because the Republicans switch their votes, but because the Republicans just don’t give a damn and will stay home.
There will always be a hard core of Anti-Abortionists, pro-School Prayer, anti-gay, anti-flag burners, anti-evolutionists who will vote for the party that pretends to listen to them. These lunatics will always be with us, but even though Republicans pay them lip service, Bush has done very little to promote their causes and even they might stay home.